Many inexperienced sports bettors don’t look into the concept of value well enough or completely ignore it when choosing a manner of play. An even more concerning fact is that despite its crucial role in sports betting, wager value is often overlooked by veteran bettors as well, which often leads to poor decision making and wagering errors even among the ranks of the seasoned players.
With both offline and online betting, the concept of value isn’t always dependant on the probability of a bet to translate into a win. Therefore, especially when wagering on the underdog with money line bets, betting opportunities offering good value don’t necessarily constrain the team you are wagering your money on to win that particular sporting event.
To illustrate this idea, let’s stick to football betting and suppose you pick a NFL team set at +200 in the sportsbooks. Now, if you expect this team to win 40% of the contests in the league, then you will still have a fruitful wager, despite the slightly negative initial prediction. In this example, if the team at +200 manages to snatch four victories out of ten games played, it means you will seize a nice profit. With this scenario, if you bet $100 to cash in $200, you will lose $100 six of the ten times (which is in fact the estimated negative record of 60%), but win $200 the other four times, which means in the end you earn a consistent profit of $200.
If you are familiar with the world of horse race betting, then this concept shouldn’t be completely new to you. Commonly known as an “overlay” among horse racing bettors, this type of bet gives you the chance to earn a better profit on your wagers whenever the odds are readjusted in a way that is favorable for the bettor – for instance, a horse originally rated with a 3-to-1 chance gets a 5-to-1 shot after the odds are recalculated.
The same hypothesis also applies in sports handicapping with money line sports bets. Moreover, the best part is that the rule doesn’t involve wagering exclusively on the underdog. For instance, when the best pitcher in an experienced baseball team is throwing against a poor pitcher in an average or weak team, the line may be set somewhere at -300. Supposing that your handicapping information suggests the favorite will claim victory in four out of five games played, it means you are seizing a wager that is both safe and profitable. You will have four out of five chances to earn $100 and one chance out of five to lose $300, in which situation you still get to walk away with $100 profit.
Concerning the best approach to finding value in point spreads, the rules are even less rigid here, as each team has a theoretical 50-50 chance of covering the spread bet. In the world of sports betting, finding value when wagering against point spreads means nothing more than placing money into a line considered to be a few points too high or too low, depending on the situation.
In case a team is rated with the first chance by five points over the opposition and the bettor thinks the correct line should in fact be nine points, then the value shifts to wagering on the favorite. In the opposite were true however, then the recommended course of action would be to place your money on the underdog.
Finding good value in sports betting is one of the main prerequisites to making good profits. As long as you keep a close eye on the odds and lines provided by online betting resources and place your bets at the right time, chances are you will be able to seize more winning opportunities.
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